Tuesday, October 13, 2009

How Iranian Nukes Would Reshape the Middle East

# How Iranian Nukes Would Reshape the Middle East - Lee Smith
An Iranian nuclear program would rearrange the region's political, economic, and cultural furniture. If Iran gets the bomb, other regional powers will pursue nuclear programs - if they are not already doing so. Inevitably in a region as volatile as this, there will be a few small-scale nuclear catastrophes, probably rulers targeting their own people. Saddam gassed the Kurds and slaughtered the Shiites, Hafez Assad massacred the Sunnis of Hama, and mass graves throughout the region testify to the willingness of Arab rulers to kill their own people - in their hands, a nuclear weapon is merely an upgrade in repressive technology.
An Islamic bomb is concrete evidence that Iran's strategy of "resistance" to the West is a winning one. And this will change the region's political culture from radical to many times more radical. At best, this means that even U.S.-friendly regimes will have no choice but to raise the pitch of their anti-American rhetoric to stay in step with their rivals. Consequently, the basing rights that we have throughout the Gulf states are likely to be terminated. At worst, an Iranian bomb sends a message to the more ambitious actors in the region that they should feel free to make a run at the Americans. (Slate)
# Why Russia Is Not Afraid of an Iranian Bomb - Boris Morozov
It is quite clear that Russia, which borders Iran on the Caspian Sea, does not fear the emergence of its new nuclear neighbor, and is even actively aiding the construction of the nuclear station in Iran. Why? The reasons are manifold: 1) Russia has traditionally maintained good sources of information within Iran. 2) Russia's strategic and tactical interests cannot be ignored. Iran is primarily a threat to Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. This will increase regional tensions and strengthen Russia's position there. 3) Iran traditionally opposes radical Salafi Sunni Islamic movements such as the Taliban and Wahabiyya, which have become a serious threat in Russia's Northern Caucasus area, especially Dagestan. These common enemies unite Russia and Iran. (Adelson Institute for Strategic Studies-Shalem Center)

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